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Conflicts and Terrorism

War has a heavy economic and human cost. Not a single low-income country afflicted by violence has achieved even one of the eight Millennium Development goals.

Summaries and download links to all our research papers on Conflicts and Terrorism below.

Publications

Assessment Paper

Post-2015 Consensus: Conflict and Violence Assessment, Hoeffler Fearon

There is an ongoing debate on what brought about the reduction in violence over the past three decades in high income countries but the phenomenon cannot be reduced to the application of a few...

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Perspective Paper

Post-2015 Consensus: Conflict and Violence Perspective, Soares

Because of the difficulties involved, I sympathise with Fearon and Hoeffler’s general approach of trying to highlight certain relevant costs rather than coming up with specific cost-benefit ratios. However, I think the discussion would benefit from a slightly different perspective, taking a further step back to define specific issues of paramount importance together with promising interventions, since any attempt to paint a broad picture inevitably becomes somewhat fragmented and superficial. Considering which issues could deliver potentially the highest benefits and be tackled by fairly standardised interventions, I believe the focus should be on common crime and violence.

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Perspective Paper

Post-2015 Consensus: Conflict and Violence Perspective, Blomberg

My purpose in this perspective paper is to estimate benefit-cost ratios for the various targets proposed by Fearon and Hoeffler. I estimate most of the targets to be in the FAIR to GOOD range. The authors have done a remarkable job in cataloguing various forms of violence, their costs and benefits of existing programs. However, one notable weakness is the inability to provide systematic BCRs.

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Policy Advice

Preliminary Benefit-Cost Assessment of Final OWG Targets

This report assesses the targets in the OWG’s Final Outcome Document from 19 July 2014. This builds upon the information presented in similar documents which the Copenhagen Consensus Center released...

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Policy Advice

Preliminary Benefit-Cost Assessment for 12th Session OWG Goals

The Copenhagen Consensus has updated our benefit-cost assessment of UN Post-2015 Millennium Development Goals for the 12th session of the Open Working Group. The Copenhagen Consensus will present...

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Policy Advice

Preliminary Benefit-Cost Assessment for 11th Session OWG Goals

Some of the world’s top economists have assessed the targets from the 11th session Open Working Group document into one of five categories, based on economic evidence: Phenomenal, Good, Fair, Poor and Uncertain.

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Assessment Paper

A Scorecard for Humanity: Armed Conflict, Blomberg Hess

By S. Brock Blomberg and Gregory D. Hess. War has a heavy economic and human cost. Violent conflict is thus wasteful and inevitable – a cheerless combination. But this odd coupling, perhaps surprisingly, may help us to understand how to create a less violent world.

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Assessment Paper

Third Copenhagen Consensus: Armed Conflict Assessment, Dunne

By J. Paul Dunne. Armed conflict is a major global problem and disproportionately affects the world’s poorest. Conflict gets in the way of efforts to reduce poverty, ensure health and promote education. Not a single low-income country afflicted by violence has achieved even one of the eight Millennium Development goals.

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Perspective Paper

Third Copenhagen Consensus: Armed Conflict Perspective, Hoeffler

A Perspective Paper on Armed Conflict has been written by Anke Hoeffler in response to J. Paul Dunne's Assessment Paper for the Third Copenhagen Consensus.

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Perspective Paper

Third Copenhagen Consensus: Armed Conflict Perspective, Mack

Andrew Mack's Perspective Paper responds to the arguments laid out by J. Paul Dunne for the Third Copenhagen Consensus.

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Assessment Paper

Second Copenhagen Consensus: Terrorism Assessment, Sandler Acre Enders

By Todd Sandler, Daniel G. Arce, and Walter Enders. Unlike many challenges, there is no solution to transnational terrorism because it is a cost-effective tactic of the weak against a more formidable opponent.

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Perspective Paper

Second Copenhagen Consensus: Terrorism Perspective, Blomberg

S. Brock Blomberg's Perspective Paper on Terrorism is in response to the Assessment Paper prepared by Sandler, Arce, and Enders for Copenhagen Consensus.

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Perspective Paper

Second Copenhagen Consensus: Terrorism Perspective, Intriligator

The Perspective Paper prepared by Michael Intriligator is available for download. It serves as a response to the Assessment Paper by Sandler, Arce, and Enders.

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Assessment Paper

Second Copenhagen Consensus: Conflict Assessment, Collier Chauvet Hegre

By Paul Collier, Lisa Chauvet and Haavard Hegre. Civil wars in small, poor countries cause untold suffering, and half of them are renewed flare-ups of recent conflicts. A single conflict can cost $250 billion or more, takes many years to recover from and can block all other humanitarian interventions.

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Perspective Paper

Second Copenhagen Consensus: Conflict Perspective, Mack

By Andrew Mack. Mack prepared a Perspective Paper for Copenhagen Consensus in response to the Assessment Paper by Collier, Chauvet, and Hegre.

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Perspective Paper

Second Copenhagen Consensus: Conflict Perspective, Elbadawi

Ibrahim A. Elbadawi's Perspective Paper on Conflict responds to the arguments laid out by Collier, Chauvet and Hegre in their Assessment Paper.

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Assessment Paper

Copenhagen Consensus Latin America: Violence and Crime, Cohen Rubio

By Mark A Cohen and Mauricio Rubio. Crime and violence is a major concern in Latin America. The main issue is the high incidence of crime, followed by drug trafficking, proliferation of violent youth gangs, money laundering and domestic violence.

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Assessment Paper

Bill Gates for a Day: Terrorism, Linotte

By Daniel Linotte. Terrorism is one of the main challenges to security and peace. It became a global problem, and represents a daily menace in many developed and developing countries.

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Assessment Paper

Bill Gates for a Day: Conflicts, Collier

By Paul Collier. The high profile of the security challenges facing rich countries has tended to crowd out the rather different security challenges facing poor countries. The key security challenges facing poor countries are civil wars and coups.

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Assessment Paper

Copenhagen Consensus: Conflicts Assessment, Collier Hoeffler

By Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler. Although wars between nations have become less common in recent decades, the frequency of civil wars around the world has increased. These two types of conflict cannot sensibly be analysed together. This paper focuses entirely on reducing the incidence of civil wars.

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Perspective Paper

Copenhagen Consensus: Conflict Perspective, Addison

Tony Addison wrote a Perspective Paper in response to Collier and Hoeffler's Assessment Paper on Conflict for Copenhagen Consensus 2004.

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Perspective Paper

Copenhagen Consensus: Conflict Perspective, Intriligator

Michael Intriligator prepared one of two Perspective Papers on Conflict. The complete document can be found here.

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Projects

A Scorecard for Humanity

A Scorecard for Humanity fits into the ongoing conversation between optimists and pessimists for the last half century. The central question has been: what is the state of the world? The results of our study have been published by Cambridge University Press under the book title How Much Have Global Problems Cost the World? A Scorecard from 1900 to 2050

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Copenhagen Consensus

The Copenhagen Consensus was our first project. The basic idea was to improve prioritization of the numerous problems the world faces, by gathering some of the world's greatest economists to a meeting where some of the biggest challenges in the world would be assessed.

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Copenhagen Consensus III

In 2004 and 2008, the Copenhagen Consensus Center held two major projects that helped to shape overseas development spending and philanthropic decisions for years to come. The third Copenhagen Consensus was the latest iteration of our ongoing work to prioritize the best solutions.

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Post-2015 Consensus

In 2015, the UN's Millennium Development Goals are expiring and the international community will set new goals. The Post-2015 Consensus brings together the world’s top economists, NGOs, international agencies and businesses to identify the goals with the greatest benefit-to-cost ratio for the next development agenda.

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Copenhagen Consensus II

The second Copenhagen Consensus took place 25-30 May in Copenhagen. Once again, our Expert Panel tackled the question, Imagine you had $75 billion to donate to worthwhile causes. What would you do, and where should we start? The Panel released a prioritized list recommending how best to tackle ten of the world's most pressing issues.

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Copenhagen Consensus for Latin America

Copenhagen Consensus for Latin America and the Carribean took place in San José, Costa Rica, 22-25 October 2007 at the INCAE Business School, Alajuela, in cooperation with the Inter-American Development Bank

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