Rethink HIV: Vaccine Research and Development Perspective, Forsythe

Perspective Paper

RethinkHIV has posed the question of how an additional $2 billion per year over the next 5 years should be allocated to best address HIV and AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa. The paper by Hecht and Jamison (Hecht and Jamison 2011) makes a compelling argument for why investing in AIDS vaccine research and development (and subsequent production) should consume a disproportionately large proportion of any new resources. Specifically, Hecht and Jamison argue that $900 million per year should be allocated to vaccine research and development (approximately double current expenditures), or 45% of the hypothetical $2 billion of incremental resources. This compares to estimates that only approximately 5% of all global resources are currently being spent on an AIDS vaccine ($900 million/$15.9 billion). Given the large request for funds, it becomes necessary to convincingly justify that such a significant proportion of new funds be allocated in this way.

The following Perspective Paper is designed to assess if the assumptions and conclusions in the Hecht and Jamison paper are supported by evidence. In other words, is there data which can lead policymakers to reasonably conclude that a doubling of the current budget for an AIDS vaccine would be reasonable and advisable based on this analysis?  

In addition to a brief analysis of the assumptions contained in the Hecht and Jamison paper, the following paper also introduces a number of additional issues which might be considered for further analysis and consideration.

Furthermore, Hecht and Jamison introduce a number of alternative scenarios under which a vaccine might be introduced. The following Perspective Paper will attempt to determine if these scenarios are appropriate, and/or whether alternative scenarios might need to be considered. 

Steven Forsythe, Senior Economist at the Futures Institute wrote a Perspective Paper on the topic of Vaccine Research for the Rethink HIV project. Each Perspective Paper reviews the assumptions and analyses made within the Assessment Paper. In this way, a range of informed perspectives are provided on the topic.